WASHINGTON, DC – After the intense political rhetoric over recent months, feelings of division among voters dropped significantly in this poll. The latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll sheds light on the feelings of voters after a tumultuous election season.
The poll, conducted by Republican pollsters from Tarrance Group and Democrat pollsters from Lake Research Partners, found that voters found President Trump to be the more effective messenger on key issues like the ability to get things done, the economy, and immigration. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris outperformed Trump on a number of personality measurements including unifying the country, caring about people like me, and sharing my values.
The results highlight a core tenet behind the concept of this bipartisan poll: how bad is polarization in this country and do voters care about it? These results when paired with the outcomes of the November elections indicate that while voters still value civility, with 95% saying that President Trump and members of both parties in Congress should work together to solve major problems, voters placed an emphasis on electing a candidate to address issues over electing a unifying candidate this year.
Despite that, voters feel polarization in the electorate has improved following Election Day, coming in at a 66.5 out of 100, the lowest mark since April of 2019. When asked how they expect polarization to project a year from now, respondents were hopeful projecting a 61 out of 100. Division scores are highest among Democrats (70.71), while independents are at about the total sample’s mean (66.87), and Republicans see the least division (61.84). These scores reflect a significant, 14 point, drop for Republicans specifically from March, with Independents remaining largely the same and Democrats seeing a small, 2 point uptick.
What is the path forward to continue bringing down the political division across the country? Respondents say compromise in Congress. Despite President Trump’s “trifecta’ control, 95% of those polled agreed with the statement “I want President Trump, Republicans in Congress, and Democrats in Congress to work together to solve the major problems facing this country.”Also, 82% of respondents agreed “It will be good for the country if President Trump and Congress compromise to find solutions even if this means I will not always get everything I want.” At the same time, voters agree by a two to one margin (59%-30%) that they “want Democrats in Congress to be a check on President Trump,” indicating some limits to how much they are willing to accept the GOP trifecta pushing through its agenda unilaterally.
“The results of this poll show clearly the choice Americans made in November. In their view, getting things done trumped civility in this election,” said Mo Elleithee, Executive Director of the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service. “While many saw Vice President Harris as the unifier or the candidate that most shared their values, voters saw President Trump as someone who would move the needle on the issues most concerning to them.”
See here for the full poll data and crosstabs as well as below for excerpts and the full analysis from Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners.
“While this has been a particularly negative and divisive election cycle, there is encouraging data from this post-election survey pointing to lower levels of perceived division,” said Lake Research Partners Pollster Celinda Lake. “Should President Trump and Republicans decide to subvert expectations to enact their agenda without compromise by working together with Democrats to get things done, they will have a solid opportunity to move the country forward—easing division and strengthening the nation.”
“Ronald Reagan was fond of the metaphor of the United States as a “shining city upon a hill” to describe the sense of welcome and hope our country exudes,” said Tarrance Group pollster Ed Goeas. “Even after a tumultuous and contentious Presidential campaign, many desires of voters remain static. They want their leaders to work together to tackle the major problems facing the country, even if the solutions are imperfect and even if these solutions are created through compromise.”
Excerpts taken from Tarrance Group Analysis:
Exit polling consistently showed that most voters were focused on pocketbook issues like inflation, the economy, or jobs while a notable segment of the Republican electorate was focused on immigration and a notable segment of the Democrat electorate was focused on abortion and preserving democracy.
This survey asked voters to select whether Trump or Harris did a better job of talking about a variety of issues or topics. As seen below, Trump has the advantage on pocketbook issues like inflation, the economy, and jobs as well as immigration. Harris has the advantage on abortion and protecting democracy along with more ephemeral qualities like shared values and caring about people like me.
On the 11 issues/qualities tested, Harris has majority support on 6 issues/qualities while Trump has majority support on 4 issues/qualities plus plurality support on 1 issue. However, Trump had the advantage on the key issues of the campaign – inflation, the economy, jobs, immigration, and able to get things done.
For many voters, the decisive issue in their vote was which candidate was likely to make their personal economic situation better. Trump has the advantage on these issues, and it clearly served him well at the ballot box.
Excerpts taken from Lake Research Partners Analysis:
Fifty-five percent of voters disagree that Trump will be able to unite the country, while 42% think he will succeed in uniting the country. Almost two-thirds of independents (62%) feel he won’t be able to unite the country alongside 93% of Democrats. In contrast, 85% of Republicans think Trump will be able to unite the country. A close majority (51%) of voters think that Trump will be more focused on getting revenge on his political enemies than on getting things done for the country, while 47% disagree. There is once again a huge partisan different with 90% of Democrats agreeing with this statement and 88% of Republicans disagreeing, but independents are slightly more likely to think Trump will be too busy taking revenge (49%) instead of getting things done (46%). While only 11% of Republicans agree with this statement, we have seen in post-election focus groups among Trump voters that this is a potential fear—they hope Trump will stay focused on delivering his campaign promises and decide not to act on his threats against politicians, judges, and litigators who he feels have wronged him.
At the same time, Americans really want leaders to compromise and work together. A strong majority (71%) would prefer that Trump and Congressional Republicans work with Democrats to pass bipartisan laws even if this means both sides will not get everything they want while only 23% think that Trump and Congressional Republicans should stick to their values and only enact policies that they support. Fully 76% of independents think that Trump and Congressional Republicans should compromise with Democrats alongside 91 of Democrats% and half (50%) of Republicans (41% of Republicans would rather Trump and Congressional Republicans stick to their values alone). And when partisanship is taken out of the equation and voters are asked whether they prefer elected leaders who fight for their own values, finding fewer solutions or leaders who work together to get things done, voters overwhelming prefer the latter with 70% for candidates who work toward compromise and 25% for candidates who fight for their own values.
ABOUT THE POLL
The most recent Georgetown University Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll was conducted among 800 registered, likely voters nationwide between November 12-18, 2024 and has a margin of error of 3.5%. The poll was conducted by Republican pollster and former GU Politics Fellow Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group, and Democratic pollsters Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, Sandra Markowitz, McCauley Pugh, Ronan Ferrentino, and Carolyn Ren of Lake Research Partners.
The poll is made possible by the generous support of American Policy Ventures, a 501(c)(3) organization dedicated to reducing polarization through more productive policy dialogue across party lines.
To learn more about the poll, see the questionnaire, charts, tables, and analysis visit: https://politics.georgetown.edu/battleground-poll/
Academics, researchers, and journalists can also access the full dataset to assist in their own research and analyses. [Note: Any use of this data and material must credit the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground and Civility Poll.]
The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll is a national bipartisan survey measuring political opinion among registered voters in the United States. Produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic strategist Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners, this polling series offers unique polling analysis and insights from two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle.
Initiated in June 1991, and housed at GU Politics since April 2019, the Battleground Polls have gained widespread media recognition as reliable bellwethers of national opinion and voters’ intentions. The Battleground data projected the outcome of the 1992, 1996, and 2004 presidential race more precisely than any other similar effort in the country, including those of the major TV networks and national newspapers. In addition, Battleground Polls have consistently been major predictors of what is going to happen in approaching Congressional elections.
With the GU Politics partnership, a Civility Poll was introduced in 2019 to track voter attitudes about polarization in politics.
ABOUT THE INSTITUTE OF POLITICS AND PUBLIC SERVICE
The Institute of Politics and Public Service (GU Politics) connects and empowers students and the broader community to improve and reimagine politics and public service and reaffirm its promise. Founded as part of the McCourt School of Public Policy in the fall of 2015, GU Politics programming is open to the entire Georgetown community.
ABOUT AMERICAN POLICY VENTURES
American Policy Ventures is a national nonprofit organization dedicated to funding, building, and launching projects that have the potential to foster cross-partisan collaboration, strengthen the fabric of our democracy, and help policymakers get things done on the big issues facing our country. Founded in the spring of 2023 by Liam deClive-Lowe and Paolo Mastrangelo, APV works to leverage research — like the Battleground Civility Poll — to help policymakers understand the root causes of polarization and forge new pathways to achieving results.
