WASHINGTON, DC — The latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll highlights that an alarming number of Americans across party lines share a deepening fear that our very system of government is under threat, but for very different reasons.
The poll, conducted by Republican pollsters from Tarrance Group and Democrat pollsters from Lake Research Partners, placed an emphasis on voter attitudes toward threats to democracy in the latest poll. 81% of respondents stated that they believe democracy in America is currently being threatened, 72% agreeing with that statement strongly.
When asked specifically about people, organizations, or groups that present a threat to democracy, several figures stood as outliers with respondents saying they are an extremely or very serious threat to democracy. Those figures include Donald Trump (51%, 38% extremely serious), MAGA Republicans (49%, 34% extremely serious), major news organizations (47%, 24% extremely serious), and social media (43%, 23% extremely serious).
“The faith of voters in our democracy has been shaken but there are reasons for hope,” said Mo Elleithee, Executive Director of the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service. “If leaders will work to find common ground and seek out the best solutions, the roots are there to rebuild that lost confidence.”
Signs of hope exist in this polling, with 88% of respondents (72% strongly) believing leaders of different parties finding compromises together can help lower political division. Strong majorities of voters, when asked about specific issues, stated that they would prefer leaders find the best solutions as opposed to fighting for their values on critical issues like the budget and national debt (63%), tax credits for families and small businesses (59%), inflation (59%), border security and immigration (58%), health care (56%), and more.
See here for the full poll data and crosstabs as well as below for excerpts and the full analysis from Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners.
“The axiom that it is always darkest before the dawn seems particularly apt,” said Tarrance Group pollster Ed Goeas. “Voters can see a variety of ways that our democracy can be strengthened. This strengthening will certainly present challenges, but with bold leadership, willingness to compromise, and a more informative and better regulated media, we can see that a morning in America’s political culture can arrive that will provide a much brighter culture to inspire more confidence and optimism in the electorate.”
“Voters want to get things done and are worried about the division and threat to democracy that verges on the brink of civil war,” said Lake Research Partners pollster Celinda Lake. “Real people come together for a number of broad ranging fixes to reduce those threats including protecting voting rights, elected officials working together, and changes to social media.”
Excerpts taken from Tarrance Group Analysis:
A strong majority of voters (68%) say that they are not happy with the way democracy works in our country. While one would expect Republicans (79%) and Independents (73%) to be unhappy, given their lack of power in the White House and Congress, even most Democrats (56%) report being unhappy with the way democracy is working.
This lack of satisfaction leads voters to have notable levels of concern about the 2024 elections. Just thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters are extremely (19%) or very (19%) certain that the 2024 elections will be conducted fairly. In contrast, thirty-two percent (32%) of voters are not at all certain these elections will be conducted fairly.
Excerpts taken from Lake Research Partners Analysis:
The more an “issue” resembles a “core value”, the less voters are interested in the best solution, if it involves compromising on their values. There are two issues where voters want their leaders to fight for their values- voting rights and abortion.
A majority of voters are not interested in having their leaders compromise on voting rights. Fifty-one percent of voters say they want their elected officials to fight for their values, while only 39% want their leaders to find the best solution possible. Forty-eight percent of Republicans want their leaders to fight, and 41% of Republicans want their leaders to find the best possible solution. Independents are even more split- 45% want their leaders to fight, and 48% prefer compromise. Democrats are least interested in compromising – 36% say they want the best solution, and 55% say they want their leaders to fight for their values. There is a slight racial gap on this issue, with 58% of Black voters wanting their elected officials to fight for their values, and 52% of white voters wanting the same.
Voters are least willing to compromise on abortion. Fifty-four percent of voters say they want their elected leaders to fight for their values, while only 32% want their leaders to find the best solution possible. Fifty two percent of Republicans and 58% of Democrats want their leaders to fight on their values. Independent voters are more split on the issue, with 41% saying they want their leaders to fight for their values, and 45% saying they want the best solution possible. There is, unsurprisingly, a gender gap, with 49% of men but 57% of women saying they want a leader who will fight for their values on the issue.
ABOUT THE POLL
The most recent Georgetown University Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll was conducted among 800 registered, likely voters nationwide between March 9th – 14th, 2024 and has a margin of error of 3.5%. The poll was conducted by Republican pollster and former GU Politics Fellow Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group, and Democratic pollsters Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, Sandra Markowitz, McCauley Pugh, Ronan Ferrentino, and Lina Tate of Lake Research Partners.
The poll is made possible by the generous support of American Policy Ventures, a 501(c)(3) organization dedicated to reducing polarization through more productive policy dialogue across party lines.
To learn more about the poll, see the questionnaire, charts, tables, and analysis visit: https://politics.georgetown.edu/battleground-poll/
Academics, researchers, and journalists can also access the full dataset to assist in their own research and analyses. [Note: Any use of this data and material must credit the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground and Civility Poll.]
The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll is a national bipartisan survey measuring political opinion among registered voters in the United States. Produced by Republican strategist Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic strategist Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners, this polling series offers unique polling analysis and insights from two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle.
Initiated in June 1991, and housed at GU Politics since April 2019, the Battleground Polls have gained widespread media recognition as reliable bellwethers of national opinion and voters’ intentions. The Battleground data projected the outcome of the 1992, 1996, and 2004 presidential race more precisely than any other similar effort in the country, including those of the major TV networks and national newspapers. In addition, Battleground Polls have consistently been major predictors of what is going to happen in approaching Congressional elections.
With the GU Politics partnership, a Civility Poll was introduced in 2019 to track voter attitudes about polarization in politics.
ABOUT THE INSTITUTE OF POLITICS AND PUBLIC SERVICE
The Institute of Politics and Public Service (GU Politics) connects and empowers students and the broader community to improve and reimagine politics and public service and reaffirm its promise. Founded as part of the McCourt School of Public Policy in the fall of 2015, GU Politics programming is open to the entire Georgetown community.
ABOUT AMERICAN POLICY VENTURES
American Policy Ventures is a national nonprofit organization dedicated to funding, building, and launching projects that have the potential to foster cross-partisan collaboration, strengthen the fabric of our democracy, and help policymakers get things done on the big issues facing our country. Founded in the spring of 2023 by Liam deClive-Lowe and Paolo Mastrangelo, APV works to leverage research – like the Battleground Civility Poll – to help policymakers understand the root causes of polarization and forge new pathways to achieving results.
