On Tuesday, October 15th, GU Politics released our October 2019 installment of the Battleground Poll. With a single set of data analyzed by The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, Republican and Democratic polling firms respectively, this unique approach allows us to see opposing perspectives and conclusions taken from the same statistical information. We published our insights alongside the entirety of the dataset used by the two polling firms.
Celinda Lake, of LRP, focused on the state of the nation’s mood. She noted that beliefs about the U.S. long-term trajectory is very pessimistic, as “one of the longest trend lines we have seen in the history of this poll. Currently, a 58% majority of voters believes the country is heading down the wrong track, while only 35% believe it is headed in the right direction.” Only 8% of voters polled were uncertain.
Voters polled indicated a narrow preference, 50% to 42%, for a generic Democratic opponent over President Trump, contrasting the hyperactive primary field with the apparent national desire for a “meat-and-potatoes” kind of candidate. While half of Americans would prefer a generic Democrat, actual candidates like Biden (45%), Sanders (44%), and Warren (43%) do not fare as well.
Ed Goeas, President of The Tarrance Group, emphasized the contradictory popularity of President Trump. Though his approval rating is at 43%, among Republicans it is an astounding 90%. By holding such passionate loyalty among conservatives, the president is able to guide the party at large through effective communication live or on Twitter. As well, he holds a strong 57% approval on both the economy and jobs.
Asked about the impeachment inquiry currently investigating President Trump, 51% of Americans said they favor impeachment. This shift as voters learn more about the specifics of the process and supporting evidence will shape the election like few other factors possibly could. Goeas concludes “uncivil behavior in the political climate of today will only continue throughout the 2020 election . . . and in that environment, there are no winners!”
Tuesday, October 15th, 2019